MOL Q126 Review
▪ MOL Group Plc. (“MOL”, “company”) reported its 1Q 2026 results, with actual EBITDA 17% lower than analysts’ expectation and 18% lower YoY. The results were mainly negatively impacted by the Downstream segment, which faces multiple challenges, including lower capacity in Danube refinery, supply issues, and export restrictions
▪ In 1Q26 net income to equity shareholders decreased 69% YoY to $122MM, primarily driven by the lower EBITDA and additional impairments.
▪ Consensus’ 12-month forward target price is HUF 3 848. Note that we believe that the market mostly priced in the NIS acquisition already, while analyst will revise the target price based on actual data.
▪ Management reiterated its 2026 guidance, including: $3.0Bn Clean CCS EBITDA (-11% YoY); production of 95-97 thousand barrel of oil equivalent per day (mboepd) (+0.3-2.4% YoY); crude processing of 10MT (-12% YoY) and capex of $1.7Bn (+2%). However, management highlighted the increased downside risk due to negative market conditions.