MOL 4Q25 Review
▪ MOL Group Plc. (“MOL”, “company”) reported its 4Q 2025 results, with EBITDA expectations mostly in line with
consensus, however profit after tax to shareholders was lower.
▪ In 4Q25 net income to equity shareholders improved YoY to $54MM vs -$19MM in 4Q24, primarily driven by the
performance of the Downstream, Consumer Services and Circular Economy Services.
▪ In 2025 net income to equity shareholders decreased YoY to $810MM vs $1 023MM in 2024.
▪ In terms of management’s expectation for 2025, MOL underperformed its profit before tax forecast, which was
$1.3Bn vs $1.6Bn guidance, updated in November 2025. The lower net income happened despite the higher Clean
CCS EBITDA and production in line with expectation.
▪ Consensus’ 12-month forward target price is HUF 3 533, which limited price appreciation potential. Note however,
that the potential acquisition of NIS will require target price revision by most of the analysts.
▪ Management provided guidance for 2026 with profit before tax expectation of $1.5Bn (2025: $1.3Bn); Clean CCS
EBITDA of $3.0Bn (2025: $3.4Bn); oil and gas production of 95-97 mboepd (2025: 94.7 mboepd); and crude
processing of ~10MT (2025: 11.4MT).